Gambler's Fallacy

If there's one thing I've never understood, it's the lottery.  

Like, I don't get it...The probability of you winning anything is so small, the opportunity cost of that lottery ticket is pretty darn high.  And yet, people still buy in.  And it seems a lot of that has to do with this little thing called the gambler's fallacy.  

Ladies and Gentlemen -
the Gambler's Fallacy

The basic idea is that you put more faith that something will happen because it is "bound to happen by now."  Say you roll a dice hoping for a four.  The first roll is a two.  The next, a three.  Then a one, a two, another two, and a five.  By now, you may be thinking that four is bound to show up soon.  It just has to.  But the thing is...is doesn't have to, and that's completely irrational logic. Mathematically it is still a 1/6th chance you'll roll a four - just like the other rolls.  

But some people don't see that.  All you have to do is look at the advertisements for the lottery - they all run off themes like "Lucky Day", or "Feel the Luck."  They are making money off the people's irrational decision making.  

The funny thing is that the people who are good at games that we typically think of involve luck to win, don't take into account any luck at all.  In fact, it's just the opposite.  The take into account the risks, and use mathematics and probabilities to make their decisions.  Look at any poker champion - they are good with numbers.