Availability Heuristic and Decision Making

We were talking in class about the different heuristics - or rules of thumb - we use to understand things faster.  One of them, the availability heuristic, I have especially been seeing almost everyday in people's decision making.  And it hurts sometimes, because it can lead them to make irrational decisions.  

But first, an example that explains the availability heuristic. Parents are more protective of their children now than they were fifty years ago.  And we can see why, right?  It seems almost everywhere you look you see horrendous stories about children being kidnapped, and goodness knows what else.  These are scary things!   So naturally, you being the informed citizen and loving parent, you protect your child.  You always keep them in your sight, to ensure nothing goes wrong.  You walked to school by yourself when you were a kid, true; but those were different times and today things are more dangerous. 

But here's the kicker - the probability of children being kidnapped is significantly less than is was fifty years ago.  And even then, it's a really (really) small probability. 

We just think it is a huge possibility, because we hear about these stories so often in our connected world full of a press that eats up any story that shocks and sells.  We remember the things that are the most accessible to us, and use those rules to make our decisions, even if it is not an accurate picture of reality.  In other words, we are using an availability heuristic.  

And this leads me a main thought that has been spinning around my mind over the past few months - what is the social responsibility of the press?  Are they actually doing us a disservice by covering all these stories?  Sure, they may think it is their "social duty" to cover these stories, or they may just be looking for a good story to get the hits they need on Google.  But regardless of intentions, are they creating a bigger problem in doing so?  

But, there is a counter argument as well -- maybe the decrease in kidnappings are due to better parent behavior because they are more aware of the terrible things that can happen to their children. Proving that causality would be, of course difficult.  But, still its interesting.  

I think it comes down to the classic economic test of benefits vs costs.  Sure, there is less kidnapping nowadays (and thank goodness).  But, what cost does that have?  Some would argue that sheltered children have a smaller probability of being kidnapped yes, but they are robbed of the essential skills that would have developed from the adventuring and being off on their own.  So, is the benefit of a smaller probability of being kidnapped worth the cost of losing those skills?  I wish I had the answer.  

But what I do know is we all must be careful not fall into the trap of the availability heuristic.  Think like a rational human being, be different, and lead by example.  Otherwise, you could be blind to the things you could help fix - as demonstrated below.